© Friederike Hofmann, MATH+
Author: Jaques Resing (TU Eindhoven)
Project: 4TU.AMI
Challenge
In the coin collection of Santa Clause, you will find a coin from the Republic of Heddonia. If you flip this coin, it shows heads with a probability of 3/4 and tails with a probability of 1/4. The coin collection also contains another coin from the Kingdom of Tailland, which shows tails with a probability of 3/4 and heads with a probability of 1/4.
Santa Clause flips both coins simultaneously; one coin comes up heads and the other one tails.
What is the probability p that the coin that comes up heads is the one from the Republic of Heddonia?
Possible answers:
- p ≤ 0.55 holds.
- 0.55 < p ≤ 0.60 holds.
- 0.60 < p ≤ 0.65 holds.
- 0.65 < p ≤ 0.70 holds.
- 0.70 < p ≤ 0.75 holds.
- 0.75 < p ≤ 0.80 holds.
- 0.80 < p ≤ 0.85 holds.
- 0.85 < p ≤ 0.90 holds.
- 0.90 < p ≤ 0.95 holds.
- 0.95 < p holds.